- Realtor.com just unveiled its 2025 housing market outlook.
- Home values should rise slightly next year as property sales pick up due to lower mortgage rates.
- However, rent should stay in check due to a massive influx of apartment inventory.
Property owners, prospective buyers, renters, and landlords should expect more of the same in the new year — for the most part.
Home sales and the cost of buying or renting won't be much different in 2025, Realtor.com said in its housing forecast published on December 4. The firm's researchers see sales inching 1.5% higher while home prices climb 3.7% — in line with the rate they've risen since 2012 — and rent stays roughly flat at -0.1%. Mortgage rates should also slide slightly, though they'll stay north of 6%.
Those modestly positive projections are based on what Realtor.com expects to be a healthy economic backdrop typified by lower interest rates and steady growth. The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in December and then a few more times in the first half of the year, the firm said.
Even more vital is that no one, other than a few contrarians, is calling for an economic downturn. Barring a serious shock, home prices should stay elevated and continue to climb modestly, though they're well off their post-pandemic peak.
"Prices are going to keep rising because we're not going to have a recession," said Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, in an interview with Business Insider ahead of the report's release. "If you look at the times that home prices fall, it's typically only when there's a recession, and only when people are forced to sell."
In addition, it's unclear how President-elect Donald Trump's policies will affect the US housing market, though stock market strategists generally agree that tax cuts and deregulation will boost business confidence. McLaughlin thinks that may have a trickle-down effect for homebuyers.
"If you're talking about the resale market, the existing homes market, it's hard not to become optimistic about just the broader economy, because of things like tax cuts and other benefits to households that might put more money in their pocket at the end of the day," McLaughlin said. He added: "That might encourage them to go out and either buy a home, if they don't currently own one — or grade up to a house maybe they've been waiting to over the last few years."
High on supply
While that backdrop mostly represents business-as-usual, next year's housing market may be marked by a significant development: sizable increases in home and apartment supply.
A long-running home shortage is finally easing, as Realtor.com predicts that 2025 will be the first "balanced" housing market in nine years, meaning neither buyers nor sellers will have disproportionate leverage. That's thanks to an 11.7% jump in existing home inventory and a 13.8% surge in single-family home starts.
Home listings have been on the rise recently in most of the 50 largest US real-estate markets, which defies what Realtor.com had thought would be a big drop in inventory this year. However, there's still a shortfall of 3.7 million homes in the US, Freddie Mac estimates.
Continued supply improvements mean there should be 4.1 months of homes available in 2025, up from 3.7 months now, Realtor.com said. The National Association of Realtors, a competing firm, reported last month that there's already 4.2 months' supply of existing homes available.
Rental inventory is also on the rise, as real-estate site Zumper found that the supply of new apartments in the US hit its highest level in five decades this summer.
That dynamic should cause rent growth to stall, McLaughlin said. Home prices likely won't suffer a similar fate, in his view, because single-family supply will come online slower.
"What we've seen over the past couple years is a large uptick in new multi-family construction, and they tend to be released all at once," McLaughlin said. "And so it can have very sharp and especially isolated impacts on rents — in particular — in urban areas where they are built."
With more options, renters won't be forced to endure the abnormally large rent hikes that became more common during and after the pandemic.
Landlords might also struggle to raise rent substantially in a strong economy with lower mortgage rates since renters could walk away from bidding wars and look at houses instead.
"When incomes grow enough in the rental segment, those renters tend to convert over to owners," McLaughlin said. "They typically won't use their incomes to bid up rents more — they'll just go and, if they can afford it, they'll go buy a house."
McLaughlin continued: "So those that continue to stay renting, landlords don't have the ability necessarily to raise rents at the rates that price growth plays out in most markets."
Still, inventory increases likely won't translate to meaningful discounts on homes or rental units. Prices almost always rise over time along with the population size and money supply, so while apartments may be easier to find, those pining for pre-pandemic prices could be disappointed — even in an otherwise solid year.